Around the County Frequent information updates for agricultural audiences Sun, 15 May 2005 13:02:08 -0500 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/rss.xml Soybean and corn export outlook https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13493/ Thu, 19 Jul 2018 15:01:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13493/ Soybean and corn export outlook

News Source:

Todd Hubbs, 217-300-4688

News Writer:

Kelsey Litchfield, 217-300-7493

URBANA, Ill. - The escalating trade issues between the U.S. and many of our trading partners continue to affect the outlook in both corn and soybean markets. Drastic price declines since Memorial Day show the impact of trade uncertainty and yield potential.

"The prospect of large yields combined with trade issues set the baseline for determining export potential and price formation in both corn and soybean markets moving forward," says Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois agricultural economist.

The USDA soybean export projection for the current marketing year totals 2.085 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month's estimate. Census Bureau export estimates through May place soybean exports at 1.762 billion bushels. Census Bureau export totals came in 42 million bushels larger than cumulative marketing-year export inspections over the same period.

As of July 12, cumulative export inspections for the current marketing year totaled 1.873 billion bushels. Hubbs explains that if the same difference in export pace continued through the current period, soybean exports would have totaled 1.915 billion bushels as of July 12. For the remainder of the current marketing year, 24.2 million bushels of soybean exports are required each week to meet the USDA projection.

During the last four weeks, export inspections of soybeans averaged 24.5 million bushels per week. Low soybean prices encouraged sales to destinations other than China over the last few weeks. As of July 5, total outstanding sales for the current marketing year totaled 263 million bushels, which is well above the estimated 170 million bushels required to meet the USDA projection. While China looks to cancel the 26 million bushels of outstanding sales it possesses, total outstanding sales still sit above the estimated total to meet USDA projection for this marketing year.

"Adjustments to 2018-19 marketing year trade numbers in the latest USDA forecasts present a bearish picture for soybean exports," Hubbs says. "A reduction of 250 million bushels, to 2.04 billion bushels, from last month's soybean export forecast is not a surprise given the current trade environment."

In conjunction with lower U.S. soybean export projections, the USDA reduced the Chinese soybean import forecast to 3.491 billion bushels. The 73 million bushel reduction from last marketing year is the first decrease in year-over-year imports by China since the 2003-04 marketing year. While Chinese imports appear set to decrease, the USDA projects substantial increases in South American production next marketing year.

Argentine recovery from last season's drought and expanded acreage in Brazil place soybean production forecasts in the region at 7.1 billion bushels, up 808 million bushels from the current marketing year. Barring a resolution to current trade issues, soybean exports next marketing year will struggle despite the low prices currently in place.

"The prospect of record corn yields and the uncertainty surrounding trade continue to place pressure on corn prices. At 2.4 billion bushels, the USDA estimate for corn exports during the current marketing year appears somewhat optimistic given cumulative exports to date and unshipped sales," Hubbs explains.

Export estimates by the Census Bureau through May place corn exports for the marketing year at 1.656 billion bushels. Through July 12, cumulative export inspections totaled 1.907 billion bushels. Using the relationship between export inspections and Census Bureau totals, exports for corn currently sit at 2.01 billion bushels.

According to Hubbs, for the remainder of the marketing year, export inspections need to average approximately 56 million bushels per week to meet the USDA projection. For the last four weeks of export inspection data, corn exports averaged 56.7 million bushels per week. Total outstanding sales for the current marketing year sit at 454 million bushels, which is above the 394 million bushels required to reach the USDA projection.

"While corn exports may fall short of the current estimate, the blistering export pace in the second half of this marketing year looks set to continue into the fall," Hubbs adds.

Current USDA projections for corn exports during the 2018-19 marketing year total 2.225 billion bushels, up 125 million bushels from last month's projections. World import projections during the upcoming marketing year provided by the USDA sit at 5.95 billion bushels, up 193 million bushels over the current marketing year estimates.

A low price and poor corn crops in South America and the Black Sea region provide an outlook for continued strength in corn exports moving into the next marketing year. Current export sales data give indications to support this idea. As of July 5, corn outstanding sales for the 2018-19 marketing year sit at 183 million bushels, a 41 percent increase in sales from the same time last year.

Exports in both corn and soybeans built some strength over the last few weeks as lower prices spurred demand. Current estimates of export pace place both crops on track to meet or come near USDA projections for this marketing year.

"The size of the 2018 crop domestically and in key producing regions will provide a critical factor in determining U.S. export potential next marketing year," Hubbs says. "A resolution of trade issues with China and NAFTA partners would provide needed support. Current developments appear to make this a low-probability event in the near term."

Discussion and graphs associated with this article are available here: https://youtu.be/dJV-2WZlvxA

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Try togetherness: Study promotes cooperative weed management to curb herbicide resistance https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13402/ Mon, 04 Jun 2018 10:45:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13402/


corn and soybean

In the fight against herbicide resistance, farmers are working with a shrinking toolkit. Waterhemp, a weedy nemesis of corn and soybean farmers, has developed resistance to multiple herbicide modes of action, often in the same plant. Even farmers using the latest recommendations for tank mixtures are fighting an uphill battle, with long-distance movement of pollen and seeds bringing the potential for new types of resistance into their fields each year.

In a study released this week, scientists at the University of Illinois and USDA's Agricultural Research Service offer a new tool that is not only highly effective, it's free. All it costs is a conversation.

"I think we're at a point now where farmers are looking for new tools. This tool is free, but it requires that people talk to each other and work together as opposed to doing everything on their own," says Adam Davis, research ecologist with USDA-ARS and adjunct professor in the Department of Crop Sciences at U of I.

The tool is cooperative weed management – in other words, making decisions about how to manage herbicide-resistant weeds in cooperation with neighboring farms. The more farms working together, and the larger area covered, the better.

Davis and his team tested the efficacy of farmer cooperation using a computer simulation of waterhemp resistance evolution through time and space. They ran the simulation using real numbers and management practices from the past, starting in 1987, to arrive at a realistic representation of herbicide resistance in waterhemp in 2015. Then they forecast 35 years into the future to determine how resistance might change under different management and cooperation scenarios.

"The crux of the story is that if you do good stuff and you aggregate it at larger spatial scales, it gets even better. If you do bad stuff and you aggregate it at large spatial scales, it gets even worse," Davis says.

The "bad stuff," according to the simulation, is using a single herbicide mode of action year after year. Resistance to a single chemical evolved and spread very quickly throughout the simulated landscape, especially if everyone was spraying the same one every year.

"If you take the cheap route, you'll save some money in the short term on your herbicide costs, but in the long term, you'll have a much greater likelihood of developing resistance," Davis notes.

But if farmers invested in tank mixtures of herbicides representing three or four modes of action, the evolution and spread of resistance was delayed, and the delay got longer with increasing levels of cooperation.

"The message is not to use the most expensive herbicide program possible; the message is to use the available tools to manage your weeds better," Davis says. "If you do that on your own farm, certainly it's going to help. If you do it on a bunch of adjoining farms, it's going to help even more. You can buy a couple of decades of time, in terms of delaying herbicide resistance evolution, by aggregating the best practices at large spatial scales."

The simulation looked at management on individual farms, cooperatives of 10 neighboring farms, and cooperative weed management areas, comprising 10 neighboring farmer cooperatives. Davis says the specific number of farms making collective weed management decisions isn't as important as the spatial scale they cover. He suggests forming weed management areas at the township scale and above.

The concept is simple, but farmers treasure their independence. How will it work?

Davis points to existing regional farm associations, such as drainage districts or commodity groups, as possible models for how weed management cooperatives might operate. He also suggests involving custom applicators in decision-making and implementation, since they're already out there servicing multiple farms in a region.

The researchers are asking additional questions of the simulation, adding non-chemical control options like cover crops, crop rotation, and the Harrington Seed Destructor, to see how much more effective they get at larger scales. They're also trying to quantify how much non-compliance a cooperative weed management area can withstand before its effectiveness falls apart.

But for now, the study suggests preserving the effectiveness of existing herbicides is worth the trouble of making nice with the neighbors.

The article, "Confronting herbicide resistance with cooperative management," is published in Pest Management Science [DOI: 10.1002/ps.5105]. Co-authors include Jeffrey Evans, Alwyn Williams, Aaron Hager, Steven Mirsky, Patrick Tranel, and Adam Davis. The research was supported by USDA NIFA AFRI Award 2012-67013-19343, and is part of the USDA-ARS Area-Wide Pest Management Project.

Source: Adam Davis, 217-333-9654, asdavis1@illinois.edu

News writer: Lauren Quinn, 217-300-2435, ldquinn@illinois.edu

Date: June 4, 2018

Editor's note: Images to accompany this story are available at http://go.illinois.edu/CWMA

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Impacts of Chinese Soybean Tariffs on Financial Position of Central Illinois Grain Farms https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13316/ Thu, 19 Apr 2018 09:25:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13316/
"Such a tariff would result in lower soybean prices and have numerous price and cost effects. We evaluate these impacts on the 2018-2021 financial performance of an average 1,700 acre grain farm located in central Illinois. Our analysis indicates a 25% tariff would result in a significant deterioration in cash flow. An attendant 20% farmland price decline would result in over a $500,000 decline in the farm's net worth by 2021."

For the full story and analysis see this Farmdoc Daily article:

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/04/impacts-of-chinese-soybean-tariffs.html]]>
Invitation for Farmers - Petersburg Poultry Event is April 19. https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13306/ Thu, 12 Apr 2018 10:25:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13306/ https://www.ilstewards.org/get-a-piece-of-the-poultry-pie-april-19th/

Consumers in Chicago and St Louis will dish out a premium for pastured poultry from Illinois growers.

Cavan Sullivan and his family at Petersburg Poultry Processing have the market relationships and infrastructure to meet the demand butneed more birds raised.

Farmers and farm organizations can learn about how local producers can "Get a Piece of the Poultry Pie" on April 19. Local, state and federal economic development agencies will be on hand to talk about what services and programs they have to offer producers to launch a successful value-added pastured poultry enterprise.

When: Thursday, April 19, 8:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m.

Where: Tour of Petersburg Processing at 8:30am

Meet at Hand of Fate Brewing Company at 10am

107 E. Douglas St., Petersburg, IL

Space is limited: RSVP by phone or email to: (800) 526-9943 or (217) 528-1563 RETAC@WIU.edu or ISA@ILStewards.org

https://www.ilstewards.org/get-a-piece-of-the-poultry-pie-april-19th/

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Estimated 2017 ARC-CO Payments Released https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13222/ Tue, 06 Mar 2018 10:06:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13222/ Quick Stats website. With these NASS yields, fairly accurate estimates of 2017 Agricultural Risk Coverage at the county level (ARC-CO) payments can be made. Visit the link below to see U.S. maps showing estimated payments per base acre for corn, soybeans, and wheat. A table showing estimated payments per county in Illinois also is given.

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/02/estimated-2017-arc-co-payments.html


Fewer counties are receiving 2017 payments than in 2016 (see farmdoc daily, October 6, 2017). ARC-CO uses five-year Olympic averages in calculating benchmark prices and benchmark yields. By design, benchmark prices will decline in periods of low MYA prices. As a result, benchmark prices used to set guarantees for corn have been coming down, resulting in fewer payments. The 2016 benchmark price was $4.79 compared to a $3.95 price in 2017. Moreover, yields were above average over much of the United States in 2017.

Source: Schnitkey, G., J. Coppess, C. Zulauf, and N. Paulson. "Estimated 2017 ARC-CO Payments." farmdoc daily (8):34, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 27, 2018.]]>
Can soybean prices maintain recent strength through 2018? https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13194/ Mon, 19 Feb 2018 14:12:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13194/ According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs, the development of soybean prices over the next year depends on the size of the 2018 U.S. crop and a more robust pace of consumption than produced thus far this marketing year.

"For soybeans, monitoring the pace of consumption occurs on a weekly basis for exports and a monthly basis for the domestic crush," Hubbs explains. "Current projections for domestic soybean crush during this marketing year sit at 1.95 billion bushels, up 51 million bushels from last year's crush total. The pace of soybean crush is currently running approximately 2.7 percent above last year's pace through December.

"Weather issues in Argentina and recent increases in soybean meal prices create the potential for increased crush profitability throughout the rest of the marketing year. This scenario indicates a crush total for this marketing year near or above the USDA projection."

USDA projections for marketing-year soybean exports decreased 60 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. Soybean export projections declined 125 million bushels over the last two World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Using Census Bureau export estimates through December, and cumulative export inspection totals through Feb. 8, soybean exports for the current marketing year total 1.350 billion bushels. "For the rest of the current marketing year, 25.8 million bushels of soybean exports are required each week to meet the USDA projection," Hubbs says.

As of Feb. 8, total outstanding sales for the current marketing year totaled 322.4 million bushels, which is below the estimated 749 million bushels required to meet the USDA projection.

"Current data suggest soybean exports need to pick up the pace to reach the recently lowered USDA projection for this marketing year. The ability to attain the existing projection hinges on the size of the crop in South America and U.S. competitiveness in export markets. Brazil appears set to produce a crop larger than 4.1 billion bushels and continues to get a healthy share of the export business to China. Overall, weak exports and a slightly stronger crush place 2017-18 ending stocks at or slightly higher than the current forecast," Hubbs says.

Building expectations about 2018 U.S. soybean production starts with planted acreage. Presently, an expectation for an increase in soybean planted acreage exists, Hubbs says. U.S. soybean plantings in 2017 came in at a record 90.1 million acres, a 6.7 million acre increase over 2016. Current USDA long-term baseline projections place 2018 planted acreage at 91.0 million acres. "The lower cost of producing soybeans and the perceived profitability advantage of soybeans over many alternative crops drive expectations of an increase in soybean acreage," Hubbs adds. "Planted acreage near 91.3 million is projected for 2018. The USDA will survey producers' planting intentions next month and release an estimate of those intentions in the March 29Prospective Plantingsreport."

Since 1996, the difference between planted and harvested acreage of soybeans ranged between 587,000 to 1.858 million acres and averaged 1.01 million acres. Under a normal weather scenario, the record level of planted acreage may see the abandonment of approximately 700,000 acres in 2018. Planted acreage of 91.3 million acres leads to a harvested acreage of about 90.6 million acres.

"Yield expectations for the next crop year usually rely on trend yield analysis," Hubbs says. "Current USDA baseline projections place 2018 soybean yields at 48.4 bushels per acre. Using a conditional trend yield analysis, normal weather during 2018 indicates a trend yield for average U.S. soybeans near 48.5 bushels per acre. Yield at that level would create a 2018 soybean crop of 4.398 billion bushels," Hubbs says.

A 2018 soybean crop of 4.398 billion bushels combined with the current USDA soybean stock projection of 530 million bushels and imports of 25 million bushels leads to a marketing-year supply of 4.954 billion bushels, 236 million bushels larger than the supply for the current year. To prevent 2018-19 ending stocks from increasing under this scenario, Hubbs says soybean consumption needs to exceed 4.424 billion bushels, 176 million bushels greater than current marketing-year projections. "Increased soybean consumption at this level does require a significant expansion in soybean exports and strength in soybean crush levels. A larger planted acreage or higher yield creates a scenario for greatly expanded ending stocks in the 2018-19 marketing year," he adds.

"Expectations for the next marketing year include increased soybean acreage, an increase in ending stocks, and lower prices when compared to the current prices witnessed in the market. The mitigation of a major price decline requires a substantial increase in consumption or lower production in 2018. Neither alternative seems likely at this point. Using the current 2017-18 consumption projection and increased production in 2018, average farm price in the United States for soybeans could fall in a range of $9-$9.20 for the 2018-19 marketing year," Hubbs says.

Source: Todd Hubbs, 217-300-4688, jhubbs3@illinois.edu

News writer: Stephanie Henry, 217-244-1183, slhenry@illinois.edu

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Soil and Water Management Seminar February 20 Offers CCA Continuing Education https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13173/ Fri, 09 Feb 2018 08:53:00 +0000 https://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/eb108/entry_13173/

Soil and water interactions will be the focus of a Soil and Water Management Webinar sponsored by University of Illinois Extension on February 20, 2018. The workshop will be held at the Logan County Extension office in Lincoln. Presentations will be delivered via PowerPoint and web conferencing from 9 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Lunch will be provided.

"Those attending will hear about the latest University of Illinois research on soil erosion and how extreme weather affects nutrient transport. Other presenters from Purdue, Georgia, and Missouri will discuss cover crop selection, soil microbes, and soil health tests," says Duane Friend, U of I Extension educator. Certified Crop Advisors will receive 4.5 continuing education units in Soil and Water Management by attending this seminar.

Registration is $45 per person, which includes lunch. Pre-registration is required. The deadline to register is February 16. Registration made be made online at https://web.extension.illinois.edu/registration/?registrationid=17620 or by calling the Logan County Extension office at 217-732-8289.

For more information, email Duane Friend at friend@illinois.edu or contact Terri Miller, County Director, terrim@illinois.edu, 217-732-8289.

 

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